Episode 20: Decoding Week 15 NFC North Drama and More

What if you could see the NFC North like never before? Join me as we unravel the excitement of week 15, revisiting the audacious strategies of Dan Campbell that have left Lions fans buzzing and examining the nail-biting tension in Green Bay's recent matchup. We'll dive into the upcoming clash between the Lions and Buffalo Bills—a showdown of offensive powerhouses where the stakes couldn't be higher. And don't miss our spotlight on the Sunday night skirmish between the Packers and Seahawks, where the formidable Seattle home crowd might just tip the scales. Will Jordan Love rise to the occasion, and how might Green Bay's ground game find success amidst the noise?

On the betting front, I'll take you through the rollercoaster of my recent NFL picks against the spread, where I've been riding a challenging streak since Week 8, balancing wins and near-misses. With a current accuracy of 52.3%, there's plenty to discuss about the Lions' edge over the Bills and the enticing odds of Seattle's home advantage against the Packers. Plus, my thoughts on why Minnesota just might cover a -7 spread against Chicago—and why I'm tempted to extend it to -9.5. Your unwavering support and insightful feedback continue to fuel this journey through the NFC North's electrifying landscape.

Table of Contents
0:00-0:36 Intro
0:37-0:56 www.OffRacksShop.com (Ad)
0:57-2:26 2 Minute Drill (Week 14)
2:27-4:54 Buffalo Comes To Town
4:55-6:54 NFC Conference Showdown
6:55-08:31 More Minnesota 
8:32-10:25 Spreading The Field
10:26-11:02 Closing Thoughts

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Chapters

• 0:00 Week 15 NFC North Preview
• 0:37 www.OffRacksShop.com (Ad)
• 0:57 2 Minute Drill (Week 14)
• 2:27 Buffalo Comes To Town
• 4:55 NFC Conference Showdown
• 6:55 More Minnesota
• 8:32 Spreading The Field
• 10:26 Closing Thoughts

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:00

Are you still talking about football? Yeah, but without NFC North. Then let's talk football. Welcome back everybody.

Speaker 1: 0:08

This is Headed North, nfc North podcast and I'm your host. D-tron and last week is so far in the review mirror that I'm not going to spend very much more than about 60 seconds maybe 120, right at the top of the show to make sure that you've got context for today's main topic, which is going to be week 15 and some of the most pivotal matchups in the division. But first I'm going to kick it over to my sponsors and let them tell you about their stuff. This episode of Headed North Podcast is sponsored by OffRackShopcom. Offrackshopcom is an online thrift retailer. They specialize in men and women's clothing, shoes, accessories and more. So if you haven't already, head to our description. You can find a discount code for your next purchase at offrackshopcom.

Speaker 1: 1:07

Two-minute drill covering week 14. Dan Campbell is basically a mad scientist. The Lions went for and converted four of five fourth downs in a divisional game against the Packers, with major divisional implications, and the Lions got the three-point dub, with all of the usual players getting involved and a bunch of new additions on their defense. But you know who wasn't new? Mr Brick, salesman himself, jake Bates who had that winning field goal. Moving on to Green Bay, they lost, but they're still nine and four. They still got the seventh best record in the NFL and currently they sit at the sixth seed, ahead of Washington but behind Minnesota. And speaking of Minnesota, kirk Cousins came back home and Minnesota sent him back packing 42 to 21 and made it look easy. Sam Darnold threw a touchdown five piece I'm talking about fried hard extra lemon pepper with three to Addison and two to Justin Jefferson and a QBR of 157.9. And it was more bears, more problems in the bay, where the interim head coach, thomas brown, did about zero to help his head coaching stock by taking a 13 to 38 beat down from a shorthanded 49ers team. Caleb, the second coming, the golden one in chicago, had less than 30 passing yards in the first half. That's two full quarters. Stop it All. Right, man, that's it. That's a two-minute drive for recap in week 14. And if this was football, I'd probably still have time left on the clock, but now I'm going to get you in to week 15, and we're going to talk about what's going to happen this week.

Speaker 1: 2:43

The games don't start until Sunday afternoon, which is perfect if you want to go, you know, hit church, take your family to brunch, set up the grill and not miss a minute of NFC North football. The Lions are going to be your first game and they're taking on Buffalo. It gets kicked off at 325 in the Motor City. This is probably one of the toughest games the Lions will have for basically all of this year. The Lions are coming off that close win against Green Bay. Like I mentioned, buffalo is coming off a high scoring loss to a recently rejuvenated Rams team and, despite all of my unfounded claims about Josh Allen being mediocre, dude was elite in his last game Three passing touchdowns, three rushing touchdowns first time that's ever been done in NFL history. So I'm going to lay off all of the Josh Allen slander for a little while. They're getting ready to have another high scoring affair because the Lions are the number one scoring offense in the NFL and Buffalo is the number two scoring offense in the NFL NFL. What you might also be able to expect is the Lions ground game to be a focal point in this matchup, because Buffalo's defense is ranked 19th in the league against the run and the Lions have one of the best duos in the league in the backfield. The Lions are also a two and a half point favorite to win this game, and it's been about two years since these teams met, so you can expect some sparks to fly Sunday afternoon in Detroit. Buffalo has already clinched their division, though, and they've got their sights set on the number one spot in the AFC. So this is not a throwaway game by any means. They need some losses from the Chiefs and they need to continue to win, starting in Detroit, and Detroit is currently one of only two teams that have already locked up their playoff spot, but the division and the number one spot is technically still up for grabs. That's still a goal for Detroit, even though they've locked down a playoff spot. So you can bet the Detroit Lions and the Buffalo Bills will bring their A game on Sunday afternoon. I can't wait to watch this game. It's going to be so exciting. All right, I'm done. I'm done with my lines.

Speaker 1: 4:55

Sunday night, the Packers are going to travel to Seattle for a very important conference game for both teams. Green Bay, at 9-4, seattle, at 8-5, are both fighting for a playoff spot and a playoff seating. Seattle leads the NFC West at 8-5, but the Rams are right there on their heels at 8-6. And so Seattle controls their own destiny on the road to winning their division, and so they desperately need this win against Green Bay. And they have the luxury of being at home, where crowd noise is a huge advantage in Seattle. I've gone to a game there. The crowd is wild and it is very loud for the opposing team, so that is a huge advantage for Seattle. Green Bay, on the other hand, is looking to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time this year, and they've got the 8-5 Washington Commanders and 8-6 LA Rams who are very keenly watching this matchup because of the playoff implications. Jordan Love is the key, though, as he has been all season except for those games where he was out. If he's playing well, green Bay has a much higher chance of winning this game, and stealing one in Seattle, even though Jordan Love is the key to them winning.

Speaker 1: 6:09

I think the game plan is going to revolve around Josh Jacobs and Green Bay's fifth-ranked rushing offense, because Seattle is 21st ranked in the NFL against the rush. Also, watch out for Xavier McKinney in the secondary for Green Bay to eat in this game. Xavier McKinney's tied for first in interceptions in the league with Kirby Joseph from the Lions, and they're taking on Geno Smith, who has almost thrown as many interceptions as he has touchdowns. This year he's thrown 14 TDs and 12 interceptions, so Green Bay is favored in this game by two and a half, similar to the Lions, and this is going to be another major game to watch for playoff implications, both in the NFC but also in the NFC North.

Speaker 1: 6:55

And lastly, we have a divisional matchup between Minnesota and Chicago, and if you're a Chicago fan, this is not what you want to see A hot Minnesota team with everything to play for at home in prime time Monday night. Minnesota's rushing defense is second in the league and they're only allowing 87 yards per game. But does it really matter, though, since Chicago is tied for 23rd in the league at rushing offense? Maybe it's the game where Caleb will come alive. You know he's able to light up Minnesota secondary, who is ranked 29th in the league, giving up nearly 250 yards per per game in the air, except Caleb is only averaging about 182 passing yards per game, which is 30th in the league, basically the bottom. So you know what Chicago is good at. They're really good at punting Yep, punting. Chicago is the only team in the NFC North where the punter has punted for more yards than the quarterback has passed for. Torrey Taylor has punted for 3,067 yards in his rookie campaign, while Caleb has only thrown for 27.46 in his. Get ready for more Sam Darnold, more JJ, more Addison, more Hockison, more Minnesota winning and, if you're a Chicago fan, some more of the same old Bears. Instead of bearing down, my guess is Chicago will barely show up in this matchup. That matters a lot for Minnesota and really doesn't matter much at all for Chicago. All right, that is it for the rundown for today.

Speaker 1: 8:35

Let me get you over to Spread in the Field. The last couple weeks I have really been get you over to spread in the field. The last couple weeks I have really been selling you short on spreading the field. I have not. I haven't put together a good winning run since heck week eight, where I went 75, or maybe week six where I went 100. Right now, through 14 weeks, not including week one, I am 52.3%. It's 22 right out of 42. That's if you count my push from last week.

Speaker 1: 9:04

Again, the Lions, they were a minus three. I said take them at a minus three. They won by three. So you push there. But the other two games there was no upset from Chicago with the 49ers. So sorry. And I thought Atlanta would play much better, with Kirk coming back to Minnesota and sorry.

Speaker 1: 9:24

So this week is going to be different, I think. Look, the Lions are taking the bills. The Lions are a minus two and a half. I'm taking home field advantage. I'm taking the hot Lions. Give me the lions minus two and a half. I prefer to just take them at money line because I think they win, but I don't think that the bills are going to go down without a fight In the Green Bay Seattle game.

Speaker 1: 9:50

Give me Seattle plus two and a half. I think the margin for a win for either one of these teams is going to be really close, and so I'm basically taking the points and home field advantage, because I think that's where Seattle has a bit of an edge. And lastly, minnesota versus Chicago it's Chicago and Minnesota, it's Minnesota at home. Give me the minus seven that they got on the board for Minnesota. I think they win that pretty easily. I'd be willing to take it all the way back to minus nine and a half.

Speaker 1: 10:25

All right, guys, that is the show for today. I wanted to run through it quickly because I know it's late in the week get you ready for your Sunday, as always. I appreciate you listening to the show. If you haven't already check down in our description, there is a spot where you can send me a text Let me know what you think of the show. I really do appreciate you listening and all of the feedback. And if you come back next week, which I hope you do, make sure you've got your bags packed because we are heading north. I'm Detron Peace. Are you still talking about football? Yeah, the Battalion.