Headed North: An NFC North Podcast
Headed North Podcast is a show that focuses on all of the top stories and headlines from the NFL's NFC North Division. Hosting By an avid Detroit Football fan, this podcast will explore one fan's thoughts regarding the NFC North Division.
Headed North: An NFC North Podcast
Episode 9: Lions Bounce Back, Vikings Keep Rollin' and No Love/No Problem
What happens when the Detroit Lions' defense locks down Kyler Murray and David Montgomery takes charge on offense? Get the nitty-gritty breakdown of their recent victory against the Arizona Cardinals, followed by a preview of their upcoming clash with the Seattle Seahawks. We’ll explore key injuries and past encounters that could shape the narrative of this crucial matchup. Whether you're a die-hard Lions fan or just looking to enhance your game-watching experience, our expert analysis will provide you with vital insights that make you look like a football genius at your next gathering.
Shifting gears to our predictions and betting segment, I’m pulling no punches about my mixed performance so far this season. With a fresh strategy for week four, I'm putting my faith in the Vikings at +2.5 against the Packers and banking on Matthew Stafford's prowess to carry the Rams over Chicago. Don't miss our Monday Night Football forecast, where I anticipate the Lions squeezing past the Seahawks by a slim margin. Whether you're betting big or just love the thrill of the game, our thoughtful picks and detailed breakdowns will give you the edge you need. Join us at Headed North for a winning week!
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Are you still talking about football? Yeah, but without NFC North. Then let's talk football. Welcome back everybody.
Speaker 1:This is Headed North, an NFC North podcast, and I'm your host, d-trump. So last week, just like the week before, I made some predictions and just like that week before, I was wrong about a lot of what happened last week. As a matter of fact, picking just against the spread, I was only 25% of the four games that were played this week, but that's okay. This week we plan to bounce back, just like those Lions did against the Arizona Cardinals. So what do we have on the show today? We're going to review the week that was. I'm also going to give you a preview of this current week and then I'll talk about the spread and see if I can get you some better picks for week four of the NFL season. As always, I appreciate you listening. If you're tuning in, if you haven't already, there should be a link somewhere nearby that you can leave us a text message or send us a message if you like the show or if you just want to be a part of the show. I love to read those messages and also I'd like to give a shout out to our sponsors, offrackshopcom. Offrackshopcom is an online thrift retailer. They sell used clothes for men, women. They have accessories, shoes and more. So, if you haven't already, there should be a link around your podcast area that should give you a percentage off at OffRackShopcom on your next order. So go ahead and check them out. All right, so we're going to get it kicked off with the Detroit Lions.
Speaker 1:I mentioned last week that, going against the Arizona Cardinals, the Lions were going to need Jared Goff to have a solid game, but that they were going to absolutely need to get David Montgomery involved earlier, and that's exactly what the Lions did. This is the definition of getting David Montgomery involved early. On the first drive, they gave him the ball six times, he had a total of 40 yards and he capped it off with a touchdown and he finished his day with 105 yards on 25 carries. That was absolutely the plan, should have been the plan, because they were going to need his involvement, because they didn't get him involved enough the previous week and it cost them the game. I also mentioned that Arizona was going to be a tough defense when it came to Kyler Murray, because he scrambled a lot and the Lions don't really do well against scrambling quarterbacks, the Arizona Cardinals, coming into that game, were second in the league in points scored and they were first and third down conversions. That was not this. Arizona Cardinals, coming into that game, were second in the league in points scored and they were first and third down conversions. That was not this Arizona Cardinals team.
Speaker 1:The Lions defense really played a significant part in getting this W for the Lions team because they were really shutting down that Cardinals offense. Kyler led the team in rushing yards, which is not great, because one he's your quarterback, but two he only had 45 yards during the game. The Cardinals also couldn't convert on third downs like they had in previous games. They went one for nine on third down conversions. Both teams' defense seemed to be pretty evenly matched up, both getting an interception, both recording at least one sack, but the Lions' ground game was just too much. Between David Montgomery having 105 yards on the ground and Jameer Gibbs having closer to 80 yards on the ground, it was just too much for the Cardinals to be able to handle. The Lions end up getting the win and covering the spread in this game, which was good to see.
Speaker 1:Looking forward to week four, though, the Lions have the Seattle Seahawks, and this has not been a kind matchup to the Lions. Over the last few meetings, the last three meetings between the Lions and the Seahawks, the Seahawks have won them all. They've all been high scoring affairs, with it being a 37 to 31 in OT win for Seattle, a 48 to 45 win for Seattle and a 29 to 51 win for Seattle and a 29 to 51 win for Seattle. There is also some other potential news on the horizon. There was injury reports for Frank Ragnow with a pectoral injury, which could play a major role in that Lions team ability to continue to run the ball, which has been the key to them getting their wins. That balanced ground game. That is something definitely to pay attention to. And then the Seahawks defense has looked good, but they've also played some pretty boring offenses leading up to this game against the Lions. They've played against the Broncos, they've played against the Patriots and they've played against a Dolphins team that was led by Skylar Thompson. I'm not trying to negate the 3-0 that the Seahawks have got to this early in the season, but I just want to put in perspective that they haven't really been playing any offensive juggernauts. So I'm looking forward to see how they are going to play or line up against this Lions offense, which can beat you on the ground and in the air, all right.
Speaker 1:Moving on to the Packers Look, the Packers team is a surprise to me, and maybe it's because I just have a automatic desire to dislike the Green Bay Packers as soon as I started to warm up to Jordan Love being their quarterback and wanting to cheer for that team in the NFC North. They go and get this Malik Willis switcheroo thing happening and then I got a dislike him because he shouldn't be successful. Except LaFleur has game plan to make them successful and and I don't like it. And now I'm thinking maybe I'm not giving LaFleur enough credit for his ability to know what his team is going to be good at and make the right adjustments to help them be successful.
Speaker 1:Looking at last week, the Titans defense was supposed to be number one in the league and they were wholly unprepared to take on Malik Willis. Willis only connected on 13 passes, which is a trend. They're not asking him to throw the ball a lot, but he put up 202 yards in the air. He had a passing touchdown, he had six rushes for 73 yards on the ground and a running touchdown. They're using him to his the advantages that he has, which is his ability to move around and his desire to run the ball. Also, green Bay's defense went crazy in this game. Will Levis didn't make it didn't make it all that difficult for them, but they got eight sacks, two picks. One was a pick six from Jair Alexander, a fumble, recovery, forced fumble.
Speaker 1:There was a lot happening with this Green Bay Packers defense and maybe we haven't given them enough credit early in the season for what they've been able to do, but they held the Titans to only 33 rushing yards on the ground, 33 all game. Green Bay put up nearly 400 yards in total offense. So it was a lopsided affair for Green Bay against the Titans Didn't see that one coming. I thought Jordan Love gave them advantage, but clearly the game planning from the floor it's what's giving them the advantage to win these games. I say all that and then I tell you about next week where I don't think they're going to win again. Look, they are taking on the Minnesota Vikings which at the start of the season I 1000% would have told you Green Bay would win this game, especially after we found out JJ McCarthy wouldn't be there and Sam Darnold would be the fill-in.
Speaker 1:Even after week one, I thought this is a blip on the radar, sam Darnold taking on the Giants, that doesn't matter the fact that they beat them. But then they go and beat the 49ers and I'm like okay, okay, okay, maybe that's a fluke. But then they go and beat the Texans, which I'll tell you about in a little bit, and that's got me leaning toward. Maybe I was wrong. I know I keep saying that a lot. I'm starting to think that I'm wrong more often than I'm right. Sam Darnold has been beyond serviceable in his role and and again, I'll tell you about that in a little bit when I get to their win against the Texans.
Speaker 1:But for Green Bay, I don't know that Brian Flores' defense is going to not play well. They're going to go against Malik Willis and now that they've seen the game plan from Green Bay, I think Brian Flores can game plan against what they intend to do with him. They're gonna try to keep the ball out of the air a lot. They're gonna try to put the ball on the ground a lot, especially with Malik Willis and his legs, and I just think that Brian Flores is going to be prepared and that defense is going to be prepared, even though they don't have all of their pieces clicking right now. Either that, even though they don't have all of their pieces clicking right now, either that defense is showing up.
Speaker 1:I don't have the Packers winning against the Vikings unless well, unless the Vikings defense decides not to show up because the Packers have offensive weapons and I'm not trying to negate them, but you can see they don't want Malik Willis throwing the ball. The person caught the ball the most times, I think, was Jaden Reed last week four catches. Christian Watson, two catches. They're just not. They're not throwing the ball a lot. So if they can get the run, stop. If the Vikings can get the run, stop. I don't see Green Bay winning this game. But I have bet against LaFleur before and it hasn't exactly worked out for me in the last two weeks as far as picking against the Green Bay Packers, especially when they've been at home. Right now, I just think Sam Darnall and the Vikings as far as being the backup goes has a more significant resume with beating the 49ers and the Texans in the last two weeks that I just got to give them the win here and we'll talk about the spread later on in the game. But I think this is where the Malik Willis win train comes to a quick halt. All right, speaking of Malik Willis and the win train coming to a halt, let's talk Vikings.
Speaker 1:Vikings and Texans. You're talking about two, two and O teams coming in to meet each other. Last week and the Vikings really laid it on the Texans. I was. I mean, I don't know if anybody else was expecting that, but this is the second week in a row where I come in and I say, like I don't know if people were expecting the Vikings to play the way that they played and they did, maybe I should change my expectations or maybe we should give them more credit. But I thought it would be an offensive show with JJ and Nico Collins and high flying offenses.
Speaker 1:The defensive focus I thought would be there again, with Brian Flores' defense being third in points allowed, eighth in the league for rushing yards allowed and the Texans' defense being fifth in total yards allowed and seventh in rushing allowed. So I thought it would be a defensive game with some really bright spots from the wide receiver role. And well, the Texans defense did keep the trend of not allowing a ton of yards. They only gave up 274 total yards, but the defense was crazy good for Minnesota. Again. They had five sacks, two picks. They held the Texans to only 38 rushing yards, similar to what Green Bay did in their game against the Titans.
Speaker 1:Vikings defense really just showed up. Sam Darnold was sacked four times, but he also put up four passing touchdowns. Sam Darnold has been playing better than serviceable, for sure, but then when you throw in the help that he got from Aaron Jones on the ground, that was a real highlight. Aaron Jones had 102 yards on the ground and 46 receiving yards nearly 150 yards for Aaron Jones contribution to the offense, an offense that only put up 274 yards. There are a lot of positives to be taken away from this Vikings team and a couple of negatives for the Texans. Straub was held 20 of 31 completions. They were 4 of 14 on third down. That's just not good enough, especially when you have a team that is rolling right now and with the confidence that they had beating the 49ers. It seemed to carry into this game against the Texans and they looked very confident coming up week four.
Speaker 1:I already told you I think they're gonna get another win which is not how I projected it at the start of the season against the Green Bay Packers, because the offense is rolling behind Sam Darnold and Aaron Jones and also that defense is just really good. And last but not least, we got to talk Bears and Colts. So coming into this game, I said Bears defense would really need to step up. Caleb was going to have to get the ball out of his hands sooner than he was in previous games or else it was going to be a rough day for them. And Caleb came to play this week. He was sacked four times and he did throw two picks, but he put up 363 yards in the air with two passing touchdowns. Finally got a big day from romo dunze, cole commit, dj moore, those weapons that we've been talking about.
Speaker 1:They finally showed up but unfortunately it just wasn't enough. Jonathan taylor had 23 rushes for 110 yards with two touchdowns, and Indy didn't have a great win. Honestly, there were only two categories that the Colts performed at better than the Chicago Bears and that was rushing yards and sacks giving up. But the Bears statistically outperformed the Colts in first downs, third down conversions, passing yards, etc. They just couldn't get the win. So it's back to the drawing board for the Chicago Bears. But you gotta like what you saw from Caleb. You just gotta be really concerned with their ability to protect him and give him the time that he needs to throw that ball.
Speaker 1:Speaking of protecting Caleb, this week the LA Rams will come to Chicago to take on the Bears. I don't know that the defense is what I fear when it comes to the LA Rams. I do know that anytime Matthew Stafford is behind center you got a problem. He can come back if you let him get down and he can keep a lead if you allow him to go up, and that is what the 49ers found themselves in last week when the Rams came back to beat them. So I've got a really hard time believing that the Chicago Bears are going to be able to pull this one off on the Rams this week. There is a chance, though, if Caleb plays like he did this past week, but the offensive line gives him more time to get the ball out of there, to find his receivers and not take sacks and also those receiving weapons that he has shows up again and the defense doesn't give it up. There's a chance, but I guess that's for every team. There's always a chance. I'm not taking Chicago Bears to beat the LA Rams here, even though at the start of the season. I thought this would be a win for them because I thought the offense would be playing much better than what they are.
Speaker 1:All right, let's get into spreading the field. So recap on the season week two I was 50%. Week three I was 25%. Unfortunately, and so far through the two weeks, I am three of eight. That's about 37 and a half percent. You know it's not my best numbers, but that's okay. We've got several more weeks to raise up that percentage. So week four this is the first time we're going to get a divisional matchup guys.
Speaker 1:So this is the Green Bay Packers taking on the Minnesota Vikings in Green Bay and I got to take the Minnesota Vikings. The Minnesota Vikings are going to be plus two and a half and I think that is going to be a tricky line. People want to give Green Bay the advantage for being at home and I just don't believe that's the case. I believe that the Minnesota Vikings have played so well and they've got so much confidence coming into this game and they have the luxury of being able to see what Green Bay has done with Malik Willis up until this point, so it's going to give them advantage on how to game plan against them. So I'm taking the Vikings plus two and a half.
Speaker 1:I just mentioned Chicago and the Rams. I'm taking the Rams plus two and a half. Matthew Stafford does not have a problem with playing outside. He does everything that you would want a quarterback to do, even without weapons. He's been able to find people to get the ball to, and also Kyron Williams has been really good on the ground for them. So I'm taking Rams plus two and a half.
Speaker 1:And then, lastly, on Monday Night Football, the Lions versus the Seahawks. I've got the Lions only winning by three and this is going to be a snap of that three losing streak that they have against Seattle, although the spread or the line is like four, four and a half. So if you're betting it and what I'm calling here is take Seattle plus four or four and a half if it's in there I just think that this is going to be a really tight game and the Lions will win by three. So if you take Seattle, you take Rams plus two and a half and you take Green Bay. I mean sorry, you take Rams plus two and a half and you take Green Bay. I mean sorry, you take Minnesota plus two and a half. I think those will get you three three parlay win for the week. As always, I appreciate you all coming along on our ride. If you come back next week, which I hope you do, make sure you got your bags packed because we are headed north. I'm Detron Peace.